Analysts Assess Whether Anthropic Can Be Worth $10 Trillion
The AI startup's annual revenue exceeded $70 billion, while inference margin made a leap from a loss to plus 85%
Financial analysts surveyed by *The Verge* reviewed the IPO prospectus of artificial intelligence developer Anthropic and assessed the prospects of the company reaching a $10 trillion valuation. Experts note the rapid strengthening of unit economics and the high efficiency of the startup's business model.
Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeded $70 billion. Meanwhile, the gross margin on inference demonstrated a record turnaround—from minus 94% two years ago to plus 85%. The actual net cash outflow amounted to only $10 billion, with over $120 billion in liquidity on the balance sheet. The $80 billion loss recorded in the financial statements is described by experts as a non-cash accounting write-off due to the revaluation of the company's value, rather than actual losses.
The foundation of the optimistic assessments remains the high return on computing power. Anthropic generates approximately $65 million in revenue per megawatt of inference, and the transition to next-generation chips could raise this figure to $100–120 million. Such margins allow the company to confidently service long-term server lease obligations ($500 billion over 7–10 years) without the need for an emergency push to reach trillion-dollar revenue levels.
To achieve a $10 trillion valuation, the company will need to expand beyond the code-writing segment and establish itself in finance, law, and cybersecurity. Currently, spending on Anthropic's services accounts for just 0.1% of the operating costs of half of the companies in the Fortune 500 list, indicating a colossal room for further growth.
Experts cite the most significant constraints on explosive growth as fierce competition from OpenAI, Google, and rapidly developing open-source models; infrastructure dependence on cloud providers, which simultaneously act as direct competitors to Anthropic in the AI market; and the uncertain pace of neural network adoption in traditional economic sectors.
Nevertheless, analysts conclude that if the company maintains its technological leadership, the current dilution of investor shares will be fully offset by the long-term scale of the business.
