How the decline in gold prices will affect Uzbekistan
The rating agency Fitch Ratings uses a gold price of $4,500 per ounce in 2026 and $2,700 in 2029 but does not consider this an accurate forecast.
The decline in the estimated value of gold alone should not automatically worsen the credit ratings of Uzbek mining companies or the country's sovereign rating. The agency uses a long-term price assumption of $2,300 per ounce for evaluating companies.
Julia Buchneva, Senior Director for Natural Resources at Fitch Ratings in the EMEA region, stated that the agency expects an increase in cash flows for the country's largest mining enterprises. The evaluation considers metal prices, companies' financial and dividend policies, as well as the ability to adjust investment programs. Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC) and Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Company (AMMC) have a significant portfolio of projects, and increased production along with the implementation of new projects could support their financial performance.
Cheaper gold, all other things being equal, could reduce export revenues and budget revenues. The final effect will depend on production volumes, expenses, and the financial results of enterprises, while economic diversification may mitigate the consequences. The agency did not provide a separate quantitative assessment of the scenario's impact on budget revenues.
